The Hype Cycle and the Twitter backlash

by Nathan McDonald in News Google+

Whilst we always tend to ask our clients “what are your objectives?” rather than thinking “what’s the latest toy?”, there are many who find it hard to avoid the ‘shiny object syndrome’ prevalent in social media marketing.

So it’s useful to be reminded of Gartner’s ‘Hype Cycle’, which has been around a while, but is updated on a regular basis, for different sectors. The 2009 report costs about US$2,000, but the graph is arguably the best bit, so here it is, the 2009 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

The 2009 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

Some have seen this as supporting evidence for the inevitableTwitter backlash’ that has been foretold by many. Whilst the invasion of Twitter spam, recent DDOS attacks and celebrities jumping on the bandwagon all point to the Trough of Disillusionment, on the other hand it’s also possible that Gartner don’t quite get it.

Microblogging should be further to the left of the graph, and (perhaps) with less time to mainstream adoption. As Read Write Web notes, Gartner don’t consider the growing importance of the real-time web: a much bigger trend that Twitter is only one part of, and something Facebook are taking note of, and which Google have on their radar.

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  • estebankolsky

    Nathan,

    I am afraid that you are the one who does not get it totally. Microblogging is gone past the peak and is slowly descending into the trough. and this is good, if you understand what that means.

    it means that we are finally figuring out what it really does, how it really works, and what we can do with it. it means that we are learning our lessons on how to do it well and how to do it badly. it means that it hit (or is about to hit) critical mass and become more widely adopted and implemented.

    it means that your business of being a “twitter expert” will be more in demand.

    hyped technologies are rarely adopted and implemented in sufficient numbers to make a dent, it is the ones that are descending or are already in the trough that get the most investment and lower attention. but that is good. i could not care less for ashton kutcher and oprah and what they have to say, but i am very interested in seeing how twitter and other SM tools become useful in the enterprise.

    and for that, and gartner gets it better than you obviously, you need to be in the trough.

    (and, btw, gartner highlighted the importance of the real-time web about 5-6 years ago — so there is something to be said about getting it ahead of the rest — ain't it)

    Esteban Kolsky
    Former Gartner Analyst

  • catherinewhite

    Excellent read, thank you for this

  • http://www.estebankolsky.com Esteban Kolsky

    Nathan,

    I am afraid that you are the one who does not get it totally. Microblogging is gone past the peak and is slowly descending into the trough. and this is good, if you understand what that means.

    it means that we are finally figuring out what it really does, how it really works, and what we can do with it. it means that we are learning our lessons on how to do it well and how to do it badly. it means that it hit (or is about to hit) critical mass and become more widely adopted and implemented.

    it means that your business of being a “twitter expert” will be more in demand.

    hyped technologies are rarely adopted and implemented in sufficient numbers to make a dent, it is the ones that are descending or are already in the trough that get the most investment and lower attention. but that is good. i could not care less for ashton kutcher and oprah and what they have to say, but i am very interested in seeing how twitter and other SM tools become useful in the enterprise.

    and for that, and gartner gets it better than you obviously, you need to be in the trough.

    (and, btw, gartner highlighted the importance of the real-time web about 5-6 years ago — so there is something to be said about getting it ahead of the rest — ain't it)

    Esteban Kolsky
    Former Gartner Analyst

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  • catherinewhite

    Excellent read, thank you for this

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